FEEDING PAKISTAN'S FUTURE: ASSESSING VULNERABILITIES AND RESILIENCE OF FOOD SYSTEMS AMID CLIMATE SHIFTS

Abstract

Climate change is dangerous for food security in Pakistan due to its profound impact on agricultural production, especially wheat. The rising temperatures and storm rainfall can adversely affect crop yields and scatter water availability. Indeed, unpredictable weather events, such as floods or droughts, can disrupt farming, leading to food shortages. Addressing these challenges this study investigates the impact of climate change on food security in Pakistan for the data period 1991 to 2021. The results from the ARDL methodology demonstrate adverse effects of rainfall, temperature, and Co2 emission on wheat production whereas inflation exhibits a positive influence on wheat production. Findings show that storm rainfall, high temperatures, and more Co2 emissions substantially decrease wheat production, while high inflation and increase in agricultural technology increase wheat production. Therefore, the empirical analysis recommends the adoption of climate-resilient agriculture crops, a better water management system, the promotion of renewable energy in the agricultural sector, and the formulation of integrated policies for sustainable food production in the face of growing climatic risks